Zika virus maps highlight areas at risk

By on 14 September, 2016
zika

Asia Pacific mapped showing travel density (blue circles) and existing disease carrying-mosquito populations (red and pink shading).

 

New maps of areas under threat of inhabiting Zika virus-carrying mosquitos have been released as part of an academic study considering spatial characteristics including travel accessibility and climate.

Many countries across Africa and Asia-Pacific may be vulnerable to Zika virus outbreaks, with India, China, the Philippines, Indonesia, Nigeria, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Bangladesh expected to be at greatest risk of Zika virus transmission. This is due to a combination of high travel volumes from Zika affected areas in the Americas, local presence of mosquitos capable of transmitting Zika virus, suitable climatic conditions, large populations and/or limited health resources, according to a new modelling study published in journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases.

Areas in the north of Australia are also threatened by Zika due to suitable climatic conditions, however proportionately low travel rates mean the area is not considered to be among the most at-risk sites.

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The authors of the study say that identifying where and when populations would be most susceptible to local transmission of Zika virus could help inform public health decisions about the use of finite resources.

“An estimated 2.6 billion people live in areas of Africa and Asia-Pacific where the local mosquito species and suitable climatic conditions mean that local Zika virus transmission is theoretically possible,” says study author Dr Kamran Khan of St Michael’s Hospital in Canada. “However, there are still many unknowns about the virus and how it spreads, including which local species of mosquito are most capable of transmitting the virus, and whether immunity exists in areas that have previously reported cases of Zika virus.”

An estimated 2.6 billion people live in areas of Africa and Asia-Pacific where the local mosquito species and suitable climatic conditions mean that local Zika virus transmission is theoretically possible.”

In this study, the research team, which included scientists from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Oxford University (UK) and the University of Toronto (Canada), established the ecological niche for Zika virus in the Americas, based on where Zika virus transmission has been reported or where conditions are suitable.

At the time of the analysis, local transmission of Zika virus had been confirmed in 40 countries in Central and South America and the Caribbean. The researchers then gathered data on airline ticket sales from all 689 cities with one or more airports in the region travelling to Africa or Asia-Pacific over the course of a year.

The research team then modelled three different scenarios of seasonal suitability for mosquito-borne transmission of Zika virus. The first, which modelled monthly suitability for dengue virus transmission, produced the most conservative geographic region of risk. The second also included areas with Aedes aeqypti occurrence and the third included both A. aeqypti and A. albopictus occurrence—these scenarios each increased the size of the region at risk.

In addition, the team mapped the monthly volume of travellers arriving into Africa and Asia-Pacific in order to identify countries at greatest risk of Zika virus importation across seasons.

 

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